Wargame Articles
This was written and published soon after the invasion of Iraq started. Currently, 1/3 of the British army is in
its first year of training (so cannot be used), 1/4 is on operations. The result of the maths will be inescapable.
A Military Problem, Escape from IraqIt is apparent that the Iraq resistance movement will either dwindle out to wait for the Coalition withdrawal or turn Iraq into America's next Vietnam. No-one can say for certain based on the current evidence. This is an outline scenario for several different types of game (committee, matrix, or perhaps even just table top scenario's).
Hypothetical SituationAmerica has decided to withdraw from the worsening security situation. Britain has no option but to comply. The new Iraqi regime has little support, mainly based on the para-military police. The vast majority of whom are loyal to the old regime. Iraq has approximately 4 million men armed with assault rifles loosely formed in family/ tribal groupings. It is expected that they will unleash their anger on the nearest representatives of the West (i.e. the soldiers) when the West's plan to abandon Iraq becomes clear. Saddam Hussain and his family will aim to stage a comeback if they can, ideally by attacking the American withdrawal. Iran is expected to take the opportunity to realign its borders Westwards. Turkey is expected to enter Northern Iraq to prevent the Kurds seizing the oilfields in the North East which would give the Kurds sufficient financial grounds to set up an independent country. Syria and Jordon are expected to readjust their borders if no central Iraqi government prevents them. The Shittes in the South of the country will set up an independent state if given the opportunity. Saudi Arabia forbids Western troops on its soil in order to prevent internal dissent. The Aim is for the American and British commanders to successfully evacuate their forces, civilian administration and leave behind nothing that can be used against the West (or Kuwait).
DispositionsIraq is operationally divided into 3 areas, but de-facto there are 4: West Iraq, South Iraq, North Iraq, and Baghdad. American
Escape from Iraq, Solution to a Military Problem?With hindsight, I should have put some form of explanation at the start of my article in Nugget 174 about planning a retreat from Iraq. I was making no political point against the American/ British governments; no comment on the moral rights and wrongs. I was simply posing a military problem about an area of military history that I have been investigating, namely retreats and how to wargame the particular problems that rarely wargamed manoeuvre presents.The Solution - I was not surprised that even from the ranks of WD, no-one has suggested a solution. There is no solution. However, I can give a few hints from my reading. Much to the consternation of politicians it takes more planning and more troops to pull out of a country than it does to invade it. To reduce casualties it is essential to persuade the locals that you are leaving on a set date. In India, British nationals working in India were being murdered days before Britain left because many Indians did not believe that the British were really going to leave. It is obvious to us that Britain is not going to occupy Iraq for the next 100 years, but it is not to the locals. As illustrated by Michael Young's talk on Arab culture, they view the situation differently. Negotiations need to be opened up with the other sides (the Iraq resistance movement, the Kurds, the Marsh Arabs, Sadaam henchmen, have I missed anyone) and they need to be engaged in the peace process. E.g. it they call a ceasefire, you will give foreign aid to their local communities, local autonomy etc… They must be given a stake in the peace, or civil war will erupt as the last coalition vehicle leaving each area. The Iraq army must be built up to a large, powerful, well paid, well fed fighting machine that could 'kick arse'. This will encourage the various factions within Iraq to agree to some form of government of national unity; it will also discover certain neighbours from joining in. Every community the length and breath of Iraq must benefit from continued foreign aid after the Coalition has left. India continued to like Britain after the British withdrawal because many British people stayed until locals could be trained up to do their jobs, British aid projects and investment were still carrying on. The summary would be persuade the local we really are leaving, raise a large Iraq army, open up peace negotiations and offer so much foreign aid that everyone is scrambling for a share and is too busy to shoot at each other. Of course, the chances of this happening are close to zero. If you want to understand the situation, get a map a few friends and generate a matrix game of the withdrawal. Wargames can develop your understanding. Postscript The first 4 battalions of Iraq troops (each of 750) men should be ready soon, 5,000 infantry will be ready in due course. The American aim is for an army of 50,000. Of course, as soon as coalition forces leave, the Iraq government (whatever it consists of) will raise an army of 200,000 in the shortest possible time to prevent the country being invaded by Iran, The Kurds, Turkey, Syria and even Jordon. British Army Strength and Deployment by John Curry The fact my figures in Nugget 175 are out of date already illustrates the problem. The British army is over stretched and under trained. The Germans in WWII kept their army's combat power up by regularly withdrawing troops from combat to train. If 1/3 of the army is not on operations, how long will the British Army's combat power last? |